I tested whether gold is actually a safe haven during market crashes. 20 years of data. [OC] Statistics

What This Visualization Shows

This data visualization displays "I tested whether gold is actually a safe haven during market crashes. 20 years of data. [OC]" and provides a clear visual representation of the underlying data patterns and trends. The visualization focuses on Follow-up from my airline seasonality post. u/KibbledJiveElkZoo asked me to test whether gold actually protects you when stocks crash. So I tested it across every major market crash since 2005.

**what I did**

took every major SPY drawdown since 2005 and checked what gold did over the same period, peak to trough. simple question: when stocks are dying, does gold save you?

data: GLD (gold), SPY (S&P 500), TLT (20yr treasury). all via yfinance.

**results**

|Crisis|Stocks (SPY)|Gold (GLD)|Treasuries (TLT)| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |GFC (2007-09)|\-55.2%|\+23.9%|\+25.1%| |Debt ceiling (2011)|\-18.6%|\+5.6%|\+34.6%| |China/oil (2015-16)|\-13.0%|\+2.9%|\+13.2%| |Q4 selloff (2018)|\-19.3%|\+5.0%|\+4.5%| |COVID crash (2020)|\-33.7%|\-3.6%|\+14.2%| |2022 bear market|\-24.1%|\-8.8%|\-31.2%| |Tariff shock (2025)|\-18.8%|\+1.6%|\+0.8%|

gold beat stocks in 7 out of 7 crashes. that's pretty convincing

**but it's not that simple**

gold went negative in 2 of those 7 crises. during covid it got sold along with everything else because funds needed cash. in 2022 rising rates crushed it because gold pays no yield

also tested what gold does on SPY's single worst days (every day SPY dropped 2%+ over 20 years). gold was basically flat. not a same-day hedge at all. treasuries were way better for that

**so is gold a safe haven?**

\* for slow crises and long drawdowns: yes, pretty clearly

\* for fast panics where everyone sells everything for cash: no

\* for daily hedging: no

u/KibbledJiveElkZoo you had it right, gold is probably only a true safe haven in crises bigger and slower than what we normally experience. the GFC was its best moment. covid was its worst

**what should I test next**?

code and methodology: [github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest](http://github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest)

Source: Yahoo Finance via yfinance. Tool: Python (pandas, scipy, matplotlib).

*not financial advice. I just like arguing with conventional wisdom using data*, which allows us to understand complex relationships and insights within the data through visual storytelling.

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