I tested whether home improvement and insurance stocks rise during hurricane season. They actually go DOWN. [OC] Visualization

What This Visualization Shows

This data visualization displays "I tested whether home improvement and insurance stocks rise during hurricane season. They actually go DOWN. [OC]" and provides a clear visual representation of the underlying data patterns and trends. The visualization focuses on everyone assumes hurricane season is good for home improvement stocks. more storms, more damage, more people buying plywood and generators. insurance too, premiums go up right? so I tested it.

turns out it's the opposite.

**what I did**

took the start of Atlantic hurricane season (June 1) every year from 2010 to 2025. measured how a basket of hurricane-exposed stocks performed vs the S&P 500 around it — Home Depot, Lowe's, Allstate, Travelers. standard event study, CAPM market model, abnormal returns, t-test.

**results**

the basket underperformed the market by 2.1% on average. statistically significant (p=0.034). positive in only 4 of 16 years. by stock: Allstate -3.1%, Lowe's -3.1%, Home Depot -1.7%, Travelers -0.6%. worst years 2021 (-9.8%) and 2025 (-7.2%).

**why (my theory)**

insurers sell off because the market prices catastrophe risk *before* it happens — 5 months of potential billion-dollar payouts starts June 1. home improvement's rebuilding bump is real but localised and shows up AFTER landfall, not at season start. basically the obvious trade is too obvious — if "buy Home Depot before hurricane season" worked, everyone would do it and it would stop working. which is exactly what the data shows.

**what should I test next?**

queued up: defence stocks during conflicts, silver vs gold as crisis hedge, whether the rebuilding bump shows up if you measure after landfall. what do you want tested? the weirder the better

*source: yahoo finance via yfinance. not financial advice, I just like checking whether market folklore is true*

, which allows us to understand complex relationships and insights within the data through visual storytelling.

Deep Dive into the Topic

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