[OC] The same El Niño reads +2.2°C or +0.5°C depending on which NOAA index you use Visualization

What This Visualization Shows

This data visualization displays "[OC] The same El Niño reads +2.2°C or +0.5°C depending on which NOAA index you use" and provides a clear visual representation of the underlying data patterns and trends. The visualization focuses on Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Two indices, both official:

\- Conventional detrended Niño 3.4 (ERSSTv5): [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt)

\- RONI (Relative Oceanic Niño Index): [https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis\_monitoring/enso/roni/](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/)

Tools: Next.js + Recharts. Live version at [elninolive.com](http://www.elninolive.com)

The two numbers diverge because RONI subtracts the background warming of the whole tropical ocean, isolating El Niño's own signal from general ocean heating. In a warming climate the conventional index increasingly folds in that background trend.

By the conventional index, 2026–27 is tracking with the biggest events on record — +2.2°C weekly, with the three record peaks at +2.7 (2015–16), +2.5 (1997–98) and +2.3 (1982–83). By RONI the current event reads \~+0.5°C, still moderate, and the record re-ranks to 1982–83. NOAA switched to RONI as its relative standard in 2026 precisely to handle this. Each line is one event, aligned by event month (Jan of onset year → Jun of year after) so the trajectories are comparable.

Which one "matters" is genuinely debated — RONI better isolates the ENSO signal, the conventional index is what the historical events are usually cited on. That gap is kind of the whole point., which allows us to understand complex relationships and insights within the data through visual storytelling.

Deep Dive into the Topic

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